Help spread the word that ISOHunt is crap and together we can put this extortionist out of business even before the courts (let give a big round of applaus to District Court Judge Stephen V. Wilson!). BTJunkie is the best option out there anyway if you can’t get a Demonoid invite.

Also, uTorrent is too establish to throw away all it’s hard work, knowing that other clients are waiting in the wings to fill it’s places. They got flack for adding the optional Ask bar. They know better than to revamp the client into a media center piece of garbage.

My prediction is that Transmission client for Linux and Mac will continue to grow, but eventually people will get tired of Charles and Livingston always ignoring the user feature requests/tweaks and that terrible to display UI layout that lacks column display that they will jump over to Deluge or qBitorrent. That and because they will probably be sick of crappy Mac version getting all the best things.

Nice work. Some interesting thoughts in there.

The TPB trial will be delayed for some other unforseen reason.

–During this time, public awareness of PP and the TPB trial will grow, resulting in a pressure on the government to keep itself favourable to thousands of voters. The end result: Current parties will fear the Pirate Party as a rising threat, and free the TPB four in order to prevent that threat from escalating.

–One major ISP will risk itself in court agaisnt a major record label/movie studio. A major ISP could have enough power to even the playing field. A large publicised(sp?) trial happens(also resulting in big PP growth) and with 2 possible outcomes:
a) The ISP wins, meaning a huge win for file-sharers as ISPs would not be forced to police thier clients.
or b)Label/studio wins resulting in the ISP getting fucked up. The ISP sends letters to all of it’s customers explaining because the big bad MAFIAA wanted us to spy on them and/or possibly cut their internet connection, we can no longer provide service to you.
Result: Millions of enraged customers(many of which are completely innocent of anything). Huge boycott of said label/studio. Said studio get’s fucked. A large loss suffered, however a huge win won.

–One of these torrent sites will fill the shoes of mininova. I like Monova a lot, but I think it will probably be a more established one. Would be funny if everyone decided to flock to Suprnova.

the EFF or bbc or observing

I don’t need TF for news, I need it to lulz at p2pscrubs

#1: 4 (The point of them having Magnet links is to eventually get rid of torrent files.)

#2: 5 (I guarantee that there will be more cases, luckily the prediction doesn’t say anything about their rulings.)

#3: 2 (I doubt that more countries will adopt such rules.)

#4: 3 (With out a doubt it will become more popular, but “taking off” to me seems unlikely.)

#5: 4 (It is inevitable that uTorrent will add more features, whether they border on “bloat” are only personal opinions, also Vuze is better so I don’t care what happens.)

Okay yes TPB will be back in court, and I give them only a 30% chance of coming out clean. Now that would be a good thing, because there is nothing better than martyrs. It is what has helped to elevate the Pirate Party upwards. The pressure from the U.S., EU, Industry and others for stopping TPB are massive on the government of Sweden, so I don’t expect any epic wins from TPB crew here. If TPB crew spend 1 day in prison tho, the PP will get a massive win in the next election.

Magnet links are the future, I expect in 2010 they will be exclusive on most public sites. Most clients will have magnet support by Q1 or Q2 of this year. Private BT sites use virtually one of 4 variations on the same code and until there is a need to add magnets they will stay the same as they are now.

A note to those who say “they don’t work well for me”, upgrade your Client !!!! uTorrent 2 and the current v of Vuse works great with magnets. If you don’t want to use beta apps, just stick with old school torrents until 2 goes final.

As far as in the U.S. goes, no BT Client will be taken to court as none of them promote piracy. Dramatic changes in the laws in the U.S. would be required to get a verdict desirable to the industry. One reason why the industry has not done so is the result of ‘Not Guilty’ being passed down would cause problems for any future lawsuits against similar companies.

I doubt very much any major broadcasters will stream via BT, maybe left overs or smaller networks. Moreover the networks want to control and monetize all content, so this would offer them a much lower cost, but it would also lose them control they are used to now. Then try to get people to pay for content they stream out to others. People already are already upset with the idea of hulu charging for content, imagine the backlash saying you have to pay $5.00 a month to access this and oh you have to use your BW to give back to others. even though DSL/Cable have broad penetration in markets, it is not possible to do HD streaming with 768k to 1 Mb upstream. In many countries BW caps will prohibit streaming from becoming a reality.

A little side note, the industry is not claiming losses or problems now. They are claiming if the situation continues losses will massive over time and they will be in trouble. The industries, as more than one person has stated, are slow to react and adapt to change. This means that they have put all their eggs in the Blu-Ray basket, even that took years to get from idea to reality because of the fears and controls they wanted put in. Having invested so heavily into it they *need* to get a steady stream of revenue from it to recoup this investment and meet their planned revenue for the next 10-15 years. The industry does not just do ‘write offs’.

Real, Fiction, or Fact

Up, Up and Away…

In 2010 BT use will increase due to two factors.

First BT use has been slow to be adopted by ‘Non-techies’ due to the complexities of using BT. Magnets will dramatically lower that barrier. Additionally RSS feeds and the like resulting in people just clicking on what TV shows or movies they want to fetch and it will automatically get them when they are released. Most people don’t want to have to think about seeding, BW adjustments to maximize speeds, where to put the stuff on the HD and all that hassle. The more this is lowered the faster adoption of BT will become.

Second, The ‘Scare’ tactics only have so long a shelf life. As people begin to see “wait, I can do it and no one can stop me.” it will increase use. The only way to stop it is by keeping the ‘Scare’ level higher than the benefit. Something they have managed to do quite well, I might add, to prevent the mass adoption of BT. ACTA is their great hope for keeping the scare value up. But judging by the public reaction to propaganda like the 60 minutes episode, they know the truth and are reacting against it. Hence little to no scare value.

Stream Away!

I did say that streaming would not be used by anything major, but it *will* be used to elevate the real ‘New Media’ from niche to mainstream. Imagine you want to produce your own TV (type, as TV is does not fully apply any longer) show, where do you get it shown? pray that some network will want it? paying tons of cash for a dedicated server to stream it? put it on BT? New networks will be created through streaming to replace the old ones who shy away from it. This will not become mainstream in 2010, but we should see the seeds starting to grow, if Bram gets it working that is.

We Control it all !!!!

2010 will definitely see lawsuits and threats taken to the “next level’. More than likely ACTA, or some form of it, will be put in place in 2010. As innocent people get kicked off the Internet and face problems, as ISP have to raise the prices because the medium to heavy users vanish, as WiFi connections get hacked and more innocent people get kicked, it will begin to cause economic issues. The same people who take advantage of sites like Amazon contain a large population of those who use BT. As companies like Amazon start to lose revenue there will be little to no choice to adjust it. It will also give meteoric rise to Pirate Parties and the like around the world.

As fraudulent take-down notices, now possible due to ACTA, from Old Media and Hollywood rise to massive proportions to remove the “Indy” threat from their doorstep, it will give rise to new organizations capable of protecting Indy artists and producers.

DHT FTW in 2010!

As more and more people get tracked via public trackers and get notices DHT /PEX will rise as people stay away from trackers. I used to seed TV shows in HD like Law & Order for ages after I got them. Until I got a notice from BayTSP via my ISP. Now I still seed, but once the file is finished I remove all trackers from the torrent. Now no more notices. In 2010 it will put a new layer of distance between the seeder & leachers. It is only a matter of time tho, until they adapt by just taking a Open Source BT client and modifying it to use DHT/PEX and begin again recording seeders IPs and sending out notices.

VPN’s v Seed-boxes Style

Many will use VPN’s, but I expect one big change in 2010. The rise of the Seed-boxes. People scared of getting caught will pay a seed-box style host to fetch the torrent and then they will connect and DL the torrent from the seed-box. As the seed box host does not control what is being fetched there would be classified as a provider so in some countries they would still be able to operate.

VPN’s are mostly slow and clunky and will remain this way for the future. I cannot see them taking over as the people who go there are “Heavy” users who will stress out the network. The number of people also are not great enough to provide the high costs to run such a service.

I think in the end the seed-box style will win out.

The End

With each victory the content industries and politicians create more and more friction with the people they need to survive. Eventually the old politicians will be replaced with new ones who are of the people. It is only a matter of time.

IMHO

free unused RAM is a waste, so why it’s “much better” to have “free unused RAM”?

http://www.mediafire.com/?zjt25kzmjzm

83 Jan 02, 2010 at 19:34 by anon
[…]
Your response is awaiting moderation.

Why would this be?

But bittorent clients aren’t always used for infringement: Mininova.org From now on, only Content Distribution torrents are allowed.

http://mnstat.com/images/blog/index.html

Also do people not torrent open source software and open source operating Systems like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_open_source_operating_systems

Ohh here are some torrents that are not illegal, that you may download with a bittorent client and that I think this move will be irrelevant “2. Law. (of evidence) having no probative value upon any issue in the case.”

Proof!
http://www.mininova.org/search/linux/seeds

Also RAM isn’t like harddrive space, reading a Byte from anyway on the chip should take about the same time, you’ll only notice slowdown when your computer starts using its page file (or swap if your in linux) because RAM is nearly full.

Also, Mobilephones are bloated and suck, they use JAVA ..

They want us to buy DVDs and pay 15 bucks for a 2-hour theater chair so actors like Will Smith can make 200 million a year? Wake up the world won’t support that kind of shit anymore.

1. (Sort of same as TF prediction nr 1, but more widely) Public torrent indexers and portals will decrease, temporary private and niche torrent blogs will increase.
2. BitComet, RocketTorrents and uTorrent will be dragged to count.
3. The use of Bittorrent will decrease, the DC++ network & online-locker-filesharing will grow.
4. An open source implementation of uTP will be made.
5. Halite will become stable, the population of uTorrent will decrease.

“This cycle will repeat itself until the entertainment industry decides to innovate.”

This, however, I have a difference of opinion on. Working with the music industry, talking to these people – I do not think they will innovate. Eventually the industry will just collapse, after going to court a zillion times. Those people have a very limited mindset and in spite of all the progressive thought here on TF, to which we are used to, they still think of music as hardware sales and no matter how many times you tell them, they honestly believe that if you copy a file – you are stealing and instead should pay for copying music or a movie. I do not see this changing in the scope of time when sharing technologies will just be impossible to stop.

Regarding the sites, the future is in smaller, private, in the shadow sites.

Finally, who’d care about the industry’s whishes ? People will downgrade to non bloated clients and done.

Happy new year to all and boycott holywood !

It also turns out that the man he killed was a quite high ranked MPAA employee.

MPAA bribes the media to escalate the publication.

Papers and TV’s read. File-sharer kills MPAA employee in rage over new legislation.

This sparks a international outrage splitting the world forever in 2 sides.

Pro file-sharers unite in the entire world and so do the anti file-sharers.

Tension builds up and an accidental killing occurs.

The world goes into World War for the control of the internet.

Are you high? Guilty or not the current climate the TPB in the Sweden court defiantly isn’t in their favor.

For the whole world?