Mark Cuban: BitTorrent is Doomed
Written by Smaran on January 23, 2007The self-acclaimed guru of IPTV, Mark Cuban claims that P2P, and more specifically, BitTorrent is doomed. Apparently, “conflicting clients”, lack of knowledge, limited Internet plans, and “bandwidth premiums” are going to be jointly responsible for the death of BitTorrent.
So, here’s Cuban’s argument. He believes that from the business standpoint, BitTorrent and other peer-to-peer technologies are great. They save massive amounts of bandwidth and help efficiently distribute large media files, possibly even speeding up transfers. We agree with everything up ’til here.
But now he goes on to say that although content creators can profit from BitTorrent, users are getting screwed. Why? Here are his reasons.
Conflicting Clients End Users don’t understand how P2P works The P2P model of seeding is a HUGE problem for those [...] with bandwidth constraints or per bit or per minute costs There is a misconception that there is bandwidth savings for the end user
On conflicting clients he says, “When multiple clients are installed on a PC, not only does that create confusion among users, its a ‘last installed, first in charge’ approach. THat approach and lack of respect for other clients will lead to user configuration problems.”
Okay, number one, if you’re referring to file associations, ie. the most recently installed app is associated with the file type, then this “problem” is not limited to BitTorrent clients. Everything from graphic editors (Photoshop, Gimp) to music management applications (iTunes, WinAmp) do this. Secondly, if this causes confusion among users, then how do millions of people manage to get their music into iTunes and sync it to their iPods without accidentally having their mp3s added to the Windows Media Player library? This “lack of respect” isn’t so much about BitTorrent client developers trying to steal users from their competitors, as it is about how operating systems function today.
Onto point two. “End Users dont understand how P2P works, and once they do, they get concerned about giving up bandwidth.”
I hear BitTorrent transfers make up about one third of all traffic on the Internet these days. It seems rather likely that end users do in fact understand how P2P works. And unless their other online activities are hindered by BitTorrent or P2P, I don’t see users really having a problem with the uploads. Most don’t even bother uploading once their file has been download, and since the majority of users download torrents from public trackers, they aren’t forced to either.
Mark’s third point, “The P2P model of seeding is a HUGE problem for those using wireless broadband with bandwidth constraints or per bit or per minute costs. People are going to wake up and find that they owe Verizon, Sprint, whoever a lot more than they ever thought possible because they installed a client on their Laptops. That could lead to these networks blocking the protocol.”
Point three actually makes sense. The real problem here is miscommunication. In developing countries like India, ISPs milk customers for money by charging them for every MB downloaded, and in some cases, for every minute spent online. Some ISPs (Sify, for one) even lie about unlimited plans and have per-day limits (eg. 200 MB), which, if exceeded, cause the number of days the plan is valid for (usually a month) to be reduced every time the download limit is excedded. Someone I know actually ran up a bill of several hundred dollars because he thought he was on an unlimited plan, whereas in reality his ISP hadn’t processed his request to change plans. But as BitTorrent and P2P grow in popularity, users are quickly starting to demand ‘unlimited’ plans. If you look at the trend, ISPs are more likely to cash in on the P2P phenomenon and offer unlimited plans for a premium than start blocking protocols. And although per-bit and per-minute plans are widespread in developing countries, I don’t know how much of a problem they are to European, Australian and North American users.
Cuban’s last point is, “There is a misconception that there is bandwidth savings for the end user. If you want to download a 1gb size file, 1gb of data will be delivered to your PC. There is no savings of bandwidth on the client side. In fact, the client is charged a bandwidth premium because after they have received the entire file, they are asked to particpate in the peering by delivering parts of the file to other users.”
Guess what, the end user doesn’t care if he’s uploading bits while downloading. Unlike hosting providers, the user incurs no cost from constantly uploading data. It doesn’t matter, as long as he can go about his other activities. And unless he’s on a per-bit or per-minute plan, no “bandwidth premiums” are going to be charged to him. Also, no one is asking the user to “participate in the peering” (or simply, seed) once his download is complete. That is only a requirement of select private trackers.
When it comes to utilising BitTorrent in business, as part of a content store, I think Cuban’s looking at it the wrong way. When the various BitTorrent stores (BitTorrent.com, Zudeo.com) are up and running, content creators are not going to be getting a free ride. Users are not going to pay the same price they do at conventional stores like the iTunes Store and Amazon Unbox. Why should they? They’re acting as servers for content creators and are distributing content for no charge at all. But since money isn’t being deducted from their bank accounts, and seeding a torrent is not really affecting their web browsing, users are okay with uploading.
I’m open to the possibility that I’m dead wrong. I don’t know, maybe Cuban is right. Maybe BitTorrent is in fact doomed, and the video streaming technologies he pioneered with Broadcast.com in the 90s will make a major comeback. I mean, who uses BitTorrent these days? Just a bunch of pirates, soon to be exiled to metal platform in the middle of the North Sea. Right? Right.
What do you think? Are the days of P2P over? Is the the balkanisation of BitTorrent imminent?
Creative Commons photograph by kk+.
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104 Responses
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BitTorrent is the future!!!
Some of his reasons would have made sense 10 years ago, but not now. The BitTorrent protocol is here to stay, and I’m sure it will only grow bigger.
In the near future people wont even notice that they are using BitTorrent because it will be built into commercial video / streaming services.
Its always amusing when some rich guy who has no idea how people live or what they do claim to know something about us. Somehow the money makes them stupid. Stick with what you know. At what point in his limo ride to work did this wisdome hit him?
It works well with legit content and I see no reason why it will die in next few years.
The only way I can see BitTorrent being doomed is if it gets packet/frame shaping on ALL major ISPs. The BT Encryption, if you even want to call it encryption, will soon not be able to pass the ISPs packet/frame shaping. If ALL ISPs throttle BT traffic..this will cause BT to die or evolve again.
BT over SSL? Im sure ISPs can’t sniff that. -_^
I hope BitTorrent will at least stay active long enough for me to finish downloading the latest episode of Bleach.
ur arguments r very well put and make a lot of sense to me,Smaran!
cubans arguments seem to be a lil ignorant to me and just like ernesto said may have been understandable at least 10 years ago…
the key point is probably that the demand is commanding the supply sooner or later. here in europe at least many ISPs already jump on the bandwagon and supply flatrates with 16000+ mbits for very aquireable prices! and that i guess solves at least 55 percent (=D) of cubans acclaimed problems….
also i think that the common user is not as stupid as cuban would like him/her to be. but this is just something that time is gonna tell…
i also have an open ear for cubans theory which means i dont want to be “too”ignorant to his arguments but still it looks to me as if he himself
is one of those outsider-businessmen trying to push the crowd to their prefered direction, which in this case is obvious…
Nice article, Smaran. Well done. :)
I agree.
Cuban is out of his league. If he believes bittorrent will fail, then I think he’s too old for the technology game.
Bittorrent as you said already makes up more than a 3rd of all Internet traffic and it is continually growing. In fact I would say that torrenting is still in the early adoption stage as the masses still have trouble understanding the applications and where to get torrents etc.
Australia is fairly ok with their broadband plans. We generally have a download cap which if we go over, our speed is just throttled back to dialup speeds. Though a few ISPs still charge a per-MB fee when you go over your download cap.
People who want to utilise P2P know to get plans that throttle speeds instead of charge fees. ISPs will be forced to accommodate the users who want to use P2P and torrenting.
I agree that the bittorrent protocol doesn’t exactly favour the users, as they do end up using more bandwidth than the file itself with the downloading and uploading. So in that respect I think bittorrent will fail if it is monetized (as Bittorrent.com is doing). What bittorrent does do is allow content creators to distribute their files cheaply. And if you have a community that wants to support your new IPTV shows for example, then they will be happy to seed.
cheers
LOL!
Maybe the expert Cuban should go discuss this with the INVENTOR of the internet, Al Gore!
People won’t stop downloading torrents until they have a better alternative or the costs of downloading exceed the benefits. Most people download torrents now because they are getting media content and software for free. Whatever deterrents or risks are currently associated with illegally downloading copyrighted content are not sufficient to prevent the current number of P2P users from downloading that content. Until a stronger deterrent or better source of content is available (either legal or illegal), people will continue to download torrents.
Bit Torrent? Doomed? Mark Cuban is an idiot if he thinks this is true.
The only way Bit Torrent is going to die is if a significantly better technology comes and sweeps us off our feet.
People want junk. BT offers the best platform for distributing that junk. Thus, BT will be around until either people get sick of downloading free content (not likely) or something better comes along (no candidates as of yet).
Mark Cuban, you are the guru of poorly-founded speculation.
does this guy even know what bittorrent is? it isn’t anything like the fasttrack network which kazaa was built on. seriously, who the hell does he think he is? does he even have anything to do with the internet being where it is today, or is he just some guy that has all kinds of money that’s trying to show how “smart” he is, when in truth he’s just a wealthy dumbass.
The future of p2p when it comes to streaming movies is with companies such as reeltime.com, gridnetworks.com and eventually with the Venice Project.
One other thing to consider that might inhibit BT’s growth, though I doubt it would kill it–the fact that American ISPs currently limit upload bandwidth bigtime. As BT becomes more popular, I think this would slow itself down, wouldn’t it?
I’ll listen to a merely wealthy doofus spout on the digital world right after I get my politics from celebrities. And that will only happen if I fall onto my head from an overly tall building.
Man, why do these jerks get a public platform for their opinions??? My opinion: Mark Cuban is already doomed…to suffering the company of a jackass, himself, for life.
wasn’t this the guy that said “only a moron buy Youtube”?
“only a moron WOULD buy Youtube”
bleh.
mark,
shut the fuck up. What the fuck do you know? You lucked out in the first boom. But what makes you think you know fuck all about fuck all ?
But then again who the fuck would ask this dick balls anyhting other then what do you think about the NBA’s new balls ?
Mark Cuban is an idiot — why does this have to make the news? He got lucky and made some money. Good for him. Do we have to listen to him too?
Ugh.
-Dirk
I disagree with the Cuban but I have had thoughts about the effectiveness. The question I always ask myself is who benefits from bittorrent - I don’t save in speed since my FTP transfers and regular downloads are always faster and don’t fluctuate as much as bittorrent.
On the other hand, once I download a file using bittorrent, I am secure in the fact that the checksums are checked automatically while there is no guarantee with ftp or normal transfers. I believe it saves the server end bandwidth as people are taking up less bandwidth by spreading the files over the network.
I still prefer, as a client, a fast FTP server over bittorrent. I can download a Linux distro in 30 t0 40 minutes vs 2 to 4 hours of bittorrent clients bouncing in and out of the network.
However, that is me. I value my time and as of now I don’t see speed increases with bittorrent. The question I would like to know is which is better. People getting on and off quickly and not all at the same time or 2 to 4 hours (even longer sometimes) of a large group of people on net soaking up bandwidth.
I not here to bash take sides just questions that I haven’t answered myself or found any real answer to on the net. I’ve seen better arguments against bittorrent than what this guy put up. I’ve also seen pretty decent arguments for bittorrent yet I haven’t found any compelling evidence that has made me
jump on the bittorrent bandwagon 100% - but that’s me…
Cuban is a toll thinks he knows everything. Just to show how big of a tool he is look at blizzard. Probably one of the most profitable game company’s in the world. They use torrent to move there patches and save money in return. You start downloading the patch and share it with everyone else patching and they spend no more money on extra lines just to push the patch to 8 million people and growing now.
15 & 16, I was gonna say the same thing. He was the one who said anyone who buys Youtube is a moron, and the very next week, Google bought it. LOL
Australia is ham strung with MB capped plans, however this does not at all prevent, or even reduce the Australian’s use of Bit Torrent, applying the same attitude/results to the rest of the world, and it certinaly doesnt spell doom for BT.
Mark Cuban is an idiot. P2P, will always be around….even if bit torrent dies out….it is used in tons of chat programs, as well as some programs being (some) open source, it will live on. Even if it died on on larger networks, the colleges, etc, would still probably have access to it…or simply switch the way it operates….
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