Hotfile Researcher Discredits MPAA-Funded Piracy Study

Ernesto
March 28, 2012
91
Hotfile,
mpaa
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The MPAA and file-hosting service Hotfile are ramping up their battle in court. To back up the claim that Hotfile is a piracy haven, the MPAA recently commissioned a study which stated that over 90% of all downloads through the site are infringing. However, in a confidential report obtained by TorrentFreak, a researcher hired by Hotfile points out that the MPAA’s report is both “unreliable” and “unscientific”.

hotfile Last year the MPAA started a lawsuit against Hotfile, one of the Internet’s most popular cyberlocker services.

The site’s popularity is “a direct result of the massive digital theft that Hotfile promotes,” the movie industry group said.

In an effort to back up this claim, the movie studios hired statistician Richard Waterman to discover what percentage of the downloads that occur on the file-hoster are copyright-infringing. Waterman previously conducted similar studies for the RIAA’s lawsuit against LimeWire and that of the MPAA against isoHunt.

Dr. Waterman’s report ultimately concluded that 90.2% of all daily downloads on Hotfile are infringing, opposed to 5.3% that are clearly non-infringing.

Hotfile, however, felt that this report painted an inaccurate description of their daily activities and went on to hire an expert of their own to look into the validity of the report.

The file-hoster commissioned Daniel Levy, Managing Director and founder of Advanced Analytical Consulting Group. His job was to evaluate how representative the MPAA-funded report is for the alleged infringements on Hotfile from the site’s inception up to the start of the lawsuit in January 2011.

TorrentFreak managed to obtain a copy of this confidential report which tears the MPAA-funded study apart. The main conclusion of Dr. Levy is that the Waterman report gives “no scientifically reliable estimate of the incidence of allegedly infringing behavior through the Hotfile website.”

According to Levy the 90.2% is based on a sample of downloads that is not representative for the total number of downloads that occur at Hotfile.

Among other things the Waterman report excludes downloads from nearly half of the world’s Internet users. Downloads via so-called Hotlinks are also omitted, and downloads of files that were submitted by anonymous users were not counted either.

“Dr. Waterman has provided no reliable scientific evidence about the overall population of downloads from the Hotfile website during any time period,” is Levy’s conclusion.

Aside from the claim that the evidence is unreliable, Levy also notes that the Waterman report overlooks the fact that Hotfile is also used for purposes other than downloading alone. As is common for all storage services, a large percentage of files are used for backup and are never downloaded by the public.

“Dr. Waterman has investigated only one aspect of how users employ Hotfile. He has not investigated the storage, file security and backup or single users’ file transfer across locations or devices for self use. Dr. Waterman has not investigated the alleged infringement behavior across the uses of Hotfile,” Levy writes.

Based on the same downloads source as the MPAA used, 54 percent of all files uploaded to Hotfile are never downloaded at all. This is indeed an important distinction to make, but not a flaw in Dr. Waterman’s report as that only looked into actual downloads.

In sum, the Hotfile funded report clearly reveals some issues in the MPAA study which may overestimate the actual infringement on Hotfile. However, whether the “real” percentage of infringing downloads will be lower is impossible to tell.

The MPAA and Dr. Waterman have let the court know that they still stand behind the report, and it’s now up to the judge to decide how to use it.

To be continued.

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Killmafiaawithfire

first
MAFIAA SUCKS
- KillmafiaawithICE
  
  second
  MAFFIAA BALLS
Anonymous

Copywrong Cartels make up more bullshit statistics, what else is new?
- Anonymous
  
  Hey the same can be said for Hotfile. Hotfile funded researcher will obviously discredit a MAFIAA funded study. Neither is impartial.
  - FinalApokylypse
    
    Statistical analysis should be unbiased otherwise the information gathered is literally useless and misleading. That said whether or not the staticians themselves are biased, the fact that the sample didn’t include all the areas of the downloading scene on the site make it simply isn’t a true representation of the actual population of the downloads. But misleading statistics is remarkably commonplace, not just with the MPAA sadly. Also while not directly associated with the study, the fact that 54% of the uploaded content isn’t downloaded at all suggests a large portion of their business is for personal/business backups.
    - Guest
      
      “Statistical analysis should be unbiased”
      
      Actually a small bias may improve the analysis ;) Stat jokes ftw.
  - Anonymous
    
    Actually I’m more tempted to believe any researcher who may be partial but not yet attainted.
    
    Generally speaking, the MAFIAA also stands by reports regarding “lost sales” which in all earnest claims they lose roughly 42 times what the world earns in total GNP each year due to piracy. While at the same time continually growing at record rates each year.
    
    They also stood by their own “scientific” claims that the mass mail extortion schemes were sound, even after thorough debunkings by multiple independent researchers and a few courthouse slapdowns.
    
    Generally speaking? All else being equal, if there is a contest between two parties then you would be sort of dumb to hang credibility on the party already confirmed to be a compulsive liar.
  - YourFakeOpinion
    
    Oh! you liked your own post 4 times corporate troll?
    
    Your job is usless. Everyone know that your opinion is fake.
- DrFakeStatistics
  
  You know, I don’t even know why this Dr Fraud even bother to gather any statistical data to bias the results so badly.
  
  If I was him I would just make up everything!
  
  I would have the MPAA file a questionaire asking for what result they want to see and I will give them what they want +-5%
  
  It will take me only one day and I will spend the rest of my time in the Caribean!
- Guest
  
  Old and new statistics show that MAFIAA statistics are 100% bullshit.
ItsMrBiG

This just in! MAFIAA releases a bogus study! World is shocked!

…not
guest

MPAA is getting dumber. If they want to be right, they have to PAY their own studies and not take a 3rd party study. Pftt
6_50_Cent

$6.50 an hour? That’s Cheap!
I pay my landscaper more than that!
Pzf

According to my study if 90.2% of the MPAA members did not exist, the world would have been a better place. It’s true, I’m a whale statistician and I asked the seals.
- http://gene-poole.tumblr.com Gene Poole
  
  Your ideas intrigue me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
- Anonymous
  
  I dispute that claim. Seals know nothing about copyright or regionalization.
  
  If you want independent observation of the same high standard used by the MPAA you need to ask a herd of lemmings.
  - MadAsASnake
    
    I respectfully disagree. Seals have fabulous localised data about fish stock levels and fish quality. In this case, I’m pretty sure that MPAA only consulted a few Ostriches
    - Anonymous
      
      I hate to be a nitpicker but although it is true that seals have good data on fish stock, the problem is that the calculation in question does not use those facts. Indeed, the calculation required in order to produce the average MPAA analysis is usually harmed by the mere existence of facts of any kind.
      
      Lemmings,in this regard, provide more relevant data. I.e. “as little as possible” while still fulfilling all the necessary requirements for MPAA data presentation. A field of cabbages or other vegetables would serve the same purpose in that regard.
      
      However, for the purposes of the MPAA Lemmings have the added bonus of being cute, small, and constantly in danger which enables the presenter to point a finger at an image of nature at it’s cruelest and scream “Now do you see what downloading does?!?”
      
      Lemmings also fulfill a dual purpose in that they are excellent test study material given that their higher brain functions are identical to that of the average MPAA executive if you first infect them with rabies.
      
      And I must correct you on another point as well. The MPAA did not consult with ostriches. They presented a hypothesis for a bed of oysters and took the lack of negative commentary as confirmation.
    - MadAsASnake
      
      @Scary_Devil_Monastery
      Sorry? Did you infect the MPAA officials or the lemmings? If the latter, then I must protest. MPAA is responsible for so much other suffering, we cannot countenance adding rabid lemmings to the victims.
- Predator
  
  According to my statistic we can kill them all easily.
Cyke1

“In sum, the Hotfile funded report clearly reveals some issues in the MPAA study which may overestimate the actual infringement on Hotfile.”

MPAA paid the guy to make numbers look bloated, look at previous studies by RIAA/MPAA. All of them made things look worse then it was.
- Danny
  
  Yep and the sky has still not fallen, only got higher!
- Anonymous
  
  Up to the point where the “lost sale” was suddenly 42 times what the world in total earns as GNP. Though to be fair, at that point the MPAA cautiously admitted that their numbers might have been “slightly” exaggerated.
Anonymous

of course they stand by the report. does anyone think they are gonna make themselves look complete twats and say ‘our report is shit, based on lies that are to our advantage only and means absolutely nothing!’
Anonymous

If you cant get the courts on your side by reason, start telling lies. Lie, lie again.
- Cyke1
  
  um, its “If you cant get the courts on your side by reason, then create some fake bullshit study”
Anon1

Typical MAFIAA, hiring some insider to “investigate” a file hosting site, and skew the numbers in their favor.
Pingback: Hotfile Researcher Discredits MPAA-Funded Piracy Study | Best Seedbox
foff

Mafiaa bs. But we all really know that a serious percentage of uploaded stuff is copyrighted stuff. Why do they call it infringing, It hasn’t infringed anything until it is shared and even a moderate amount of sharing is really covered under safe harbor and none of it has a financial component. I don’t know any hosters that have directly paid for uploads. There is an important distinction that needs to be made. The files by themselves are not infringing. The person who publishes the link is the infringing party. So why are they trying throw guilt on a third party ie the hoster? If some one is shot by a gun no one tries to shut down all gun stores you go after the shooter. The mafiaa should go after the publisher of the link if they want and leave the cyberlockers alone.
- Anonymous
  
  Not only that – given that they are traditionally extremely lax as regards verifying whether they actually own the material they complain about…? And that they count fully legal backups as “infringed” as well.
  
  Unfortunately, it’s come to the point where you really couldn’t trust them if they claimed the sky was blue.
  - ProudNazi
    
    The problem is that they are claiming that the sky is green and they find always some stupid/corrupted judges and jury to believe/pretend to believe them.
  - themerryreaper
    
    They paint the clouds blue and call it good weather.
Reader

“The site’s popularity is “a direct result of the massive digital theft that Hotfile promotes,” the movie industry group said.”

Why hasn’t anyone taken the MAFIAA to court with that slightly modified to “the company’s poor performance is “a direct result of the terribly ancient business model they refuse to improve” ?
- Anonymous
  
  Because an ancient business model is not a crime and copyright infringement is.
  
  The question here is that Hotfile’s actions were not criminal (DMCA Safe Harbor) and the MPAA’s actions ARE ILLEGAL. Defamation. They do it fucking constantly. They ruin people’s reputations by calling them thieves and then don’t prove a single thing with facts (they do however try to sneak in made-up statistics and reports by “independent sources” whose pockets they’ve lined up with money.
  - Reader
    
    Could it not be considered a crime to actively seek to silence free speech and change accepted Laws to better suit their business model that they won’t update? Kinda like breaking someone’s legs if they don’t tell you something you want to know, and then threatening your parents to make you give up the information ?_?
    - Anonymous
      
      Those things should definitely be illegal if they aren’t already. But that doesn’t make the business model itself the enemy. That is entirely their own internal problem that’ll kill them regardless of what they do.
  - themerryreaper
    
    AFAIK copyright infringement is not a crime per-say. I thought willfulness and commercial gain has to be established before it becomes a criminal offense rather than a civil one in the us.
- MadAsASnake
  
  I’m really struggling to see how HotFile promotes copyright infringement. Like, where are the ads saying “get free movies here!”?
Fake

Extra! Extra! Hotfile’s HIRED expert witness disagrees with MPAA’s HIRED expert witness….
Elizaret

Hotfile does a pretty good job at removing* copyright material..
seriously I can hardly find any link which is not deleted

No idea why the MAFIAA want this one to the grave, I guess they’re retarded.
- FinalApokylypse
  
  Was there ever a question?
- Anonymous
  
  Because all other things considered, cyberlockers are a threat in themselves. A distribution model available for any artist making their multimillion dollar supply chains and marketing departments obsolete in an instant?
  
  It’s been said before: Cyberlockers are a dagger in the heart of the media industry not because they enable “infringement” – the business knows VERY WELL that is not a threat – but because any cyberlocker or easily accessible service of similar kind is a direct competitor artists can use to promote themselves.
http://www.facebook.com/ValhallaLegend Andrew Lee

According to my study 100% of what the MPAA tells us is a lie. Also a side study of mine shows 99% of the MPAA workforce has no soul. Another side study shows 97% of the MPAA workforce are Satanist baby killers. How did I get these numbers you might ask.
I paid the old guy down the road from me 4$ to do some research on them while he was high.
Ahnon

Having read the report by Daniel Levy, I can say that unlike the title of this article, it does not discredit the study by Dr. Waterman. Basically, Dr. Waterman showed that paying users of hotfile in January 2011 downloaded files that were for the most part infringing. Daniel Levy argues that since this is only a sample in January and because it excludes free users and other countries, it is not an accurate representation of hotfile downloaded/uploaded content. While this is true, there is no reason at all to believe that the same trends won’t be observed at other time periods or countries. Mr. Levy also shows his lack of knowledge about FDA trials and attacks Dr. Waterman’s technique of generalization despite it being valid (e.g., use of a sample is a stable in science, whether or not the FDA analogy holds). My opinion (as a researcher) is that this report won’t change anything in the case, and all the MPAA has to do is redo the analysis with more data, which will only make their case stronger as the results will likely reinforce those already found. Besides, who cares what the free users are doing when it is the paying members that bring the greatest profit to hotfile, and showing their level of infringement should be sufficient for MPAA’s case.
- Angry Bird
  
  As usual – most of the comments on torrentfreak are bullshit politically bourgeois LOL and totally off topic the content in the published article.
  
  Thank you, Ahnon.
  Your comment brings some clarity in the fog of the ignorant consencus of hate rhetoric amongst us pirates. Megaupload, Rapidshare and Hotfile – we all know why we are so fuckin angry…
  - DrRepeat
    
    Corporate paid troll: May be you should change your tune sometime. This is boring dude. Find something else to say.
    
    You keep saying the same stuff everyday on every posting.
    
    I know that you are new on this job but still. . .
    
    You know, you remind me of your boss who make a 5 minutes song using 20 seconds of recording with copy and past hoping nobody will notice.
    - Angry
      
      You are the troll, Dr.Repeat. Not paid off course. Sorry I stepped on your toes.
  - themerryreaper
    
    I love sarcasm.
- Tyler Gale
  
  Do they disclose in the court case that they would be making assumptions then in their report, and that it might not be the case if they covered all aspects of HOTFILE in their report? These sort of assumptions would be fine for things like promoting products (like in a month more people bought coke over pepsi), but should have no place in a court where everything should be the truth. We are still missing the part of users using the service to back up their computers on the network (which would also effect the overall percentage of use in the service).
- MadAsASnake
  
  MPAA won’t do that – the 90% is bogus and they know it. They are giving percentages of the data they selected – they don’t even know how many downloads that represents, nor have they justified how they identify infringement. Pure garbage
  - Ahnon
    
    Listen, there are assumptions being made in both reports, both the one funded by hotfile and the one by MPAA. This is how the justice system works, it’s black and white, no grey area where the truth often lies. So each side is forced to push their idea at full force using whichever data that fits, leaving out details that are not self-serving. Just fire fighting fire.
    
    Of course the MPAA report will be biased and self-serving, as will the the hotfile report too. But as Angry Bird stated, people in these forums are angry and don’t even take the time to actually debate the validity of any of the reports, but rather just jump on hating the MPAA. How can we ever resolve the issues going on with piracy and the MPAA if we can’t even try thinking in an unbiased manner? I’ll admit though, it’s all too easy to be angry these days due to all the events going on in terms of internet censorship and surveillance.
    - Predator
      
      They is no need for debate. We just need to kill all these corporate parasites and no more problem.
    - Predator
      
      “This is how the justice system works. . .”
      
      And the justice does not work by the way.
    - MadAsASnake
      
      I don’t see many assumptions in Davy’s report. He just trashes the MPAA one, and pretty well as well. Looks to me that MPAA wanted a headline that said 90% infringing. Expect to see this figure placed out of context by the MPAA from here on…
    - Anonymous
      
      What you say is USUALLY true.
      
      However…empirically speaking I have yet to see one true statement at all emerging from the MPAA. Hotfile may be lying. We know that every report issued by the MPAA has always been false.
      
      We know one of the parties involved is a compulsive liar with every interest in not telling the truth. As for hotfile, the major interest they have is BEING truthful as they have to defend themselves from a claim where they know perjuring themselves will hurt them further.
      
      So no, the safe and valid assumption is to assume that the MPAA is, once again, lying through their teeth as they are the only ones who stand to gain from being untruthful.
- themerryreaper
  
  Cherrypicking much? …
  
  Anyway as a researcher (yeah right) you should know that a sample has to be “representative” or whatever you call it in English. The study shows that it isn’t and even says that if it were the results may or may not be similar.
  
  Any statistician that cherrypicks the material he works with without proper reasoning for it is suspect and most likely trying to prove a point rather than clarifying the raw numbers. They are for all intents and purposes propagandists rather than statisticians.
  - Ahnon
    
    The sample used by Dr. Waterman was representative of paying users downloading in January 2011. If you read my comment carefully, you will see that is what I was saying (not that the sample was representative of all users). The counter-report by Daniel Levy is arguing that this is not representative of all hotfile users (including non-paying ones and ones in all countries and their behaviour at different dates). I agree with Levy on this point, but my point was that you will still likely find very high infringement no matter the context or time or country. I’m not even sure Dr. Waterman was trying to generalize his findings to all users, but merely pointing out that in the (sub)sample he used, infringement was very high and that perhaps this could generalize to all hotfile users.
    
    Most statisticians and researchers on this planet cherrypicks the data to build a story. If you think that all of science is objective, you are wrong. It is merely presented as objective, and there is always an underlying human bias which has guided the final results. Yes, some researchers and some kinds of research fields are more or less prone to this. My point was that in the justice system, this type of bias is even more prevalent than in academia. There is a major conflict of interest between truth and the need to build a strong case. In other words, truth comes second to building a strong case. It is in this context that both the MPAA and hotfile reports can be said to be biased and incomplete in their analysis. There is a middle ground that no one party will discuss because it is not in their interest. It would take an independent researcher that is not paid by either MPAA or hotfile to do the analysis as unbiased as possible.
    
    The truth is probably that the MPAA is likely right that most of hotfile users use the service for downloading infringing materials but that their analysis is limited because it looks only at a subsample of a subpopulation (which is nonetheless representative of that subpopulation). The truth in Daniel Levy’s report is that it does indeed correctly point out the flaws of the MPAA report, but it does not disprove whether in the event of a fuller analysis the same results would not be found, thereby confirming the original findings.
    - themerryreaper
      
      I’m sorry mate I thought you were a tad deluded, but I was wrong you are either plain stupid or you are grasping at straws in order to play the devil’s advocate…
      
      “The truth in Daniel Levy’s report is that it does indeed correctly point out the flaws of the MPAA report, but it does not disprove whether in the event of a fuller analysis the same results would not be found, thereby confirming the original findings.”
      
      That makes no sense whatsoever. You know as much about science and the scientific method as I do about quantum mechanics.
      How on earth is proving that a study is unreliable the same as proving it right? That’s just plain retarded.
    - Ahnon
      
      At themerryreaper:
      “How on earth is proving that a study is unreliable the same as proving it right? That’s just plain retarded.”
      
      Yes, if I had read what I wrote the way you did I would too think that might sound retarded.
      
      What I was trying to convey was that Daniel Levy’s report does not disprove whether in the event of a fuller analysis the same results would not be found. It is therefore possible that results (of the fuller analysis) could still confirm the original funding from the smaller sample.
      
      I wasn’t saying (as you assumed) that the original findings by Dr. Waterman were confirmed because Daniel’s Levy report could not disprove what would be found in the fuller analysis despite finding the smaller and limited analysis unreliable.
      
      I should have separated those two points instead of separating by a comma, as this left the sentence a bit open to interpretation.
      
      Sigh.
    - themerryreaper
      
      You said: “… thereby confirming the original’s findings”
      
      So not a misinterpretation on my part, but just reading what you stated, which is not susceptible to misinterpretation at all. You’re just surprised someone actually read what you stated and pointed out the bullshit factor of it all.
      
      You have no idea what statistics is all about.
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neutrallogistics

Hmm.. Science vs. a forced market

P2P 4 ever!
Neb12

You ever notice that in a trial the lawyers aren’t the who swear to tell the truth?
There must be a reason……….Hmm, I wonder what it could be……..Oh I got it!
Lawyers have their own version of the truth…….That’s my story and im sticking to it.

This whole mafia thing would be funny as heck if it weren’t so tragic…….for everyone,
whether they know it or not
- MadAsASnake
  
  Lawyers do have a code of conduct, but as we have seen it tends to be assumed that they follow it and enforcement, even when it occurs, is always very light handed.
Fakeaddy6169

Jesus Christ. ENCRYPT YOUR STREAM. It should not even be possible for anyone to obtain statistics about the type of content being downloaded. URLs should be meaningless hashes, and actual content should be encrypted. Jesus Christ. Amen.
Guest

Besides, who cares what the free users are doing when it is the paying members that bring the greatest profit to hotfile, and showing their level of infringement
should be sufficient for MPAA’s case.

No not at all. The safe harbor protection does not turn on the fraction of illegal uploads but on specific knowledge. Even if Hotfile only ignored one specific infringement after being notified, it would lose its safe harbor, but millions of uploaded files could be infringing without Hotfile being liable provided that the service acts timely on DMCA complaints.
- Ahnon
  
  Thanks for the clarification.
http://torrentfreak.com/ Rob8urcakes

@MPAA liar, liar pants on MAFIAAfire! You’ve been caught again guys. Grow up & get a grip huh?
Anonymous

The MPAA just keeps lying. What’s new? If lying was a crime they would be locked up for a trillion years. Same measures as what’s used when they “estimate” total losses. *facepalm*
PRIVACY is priceless to me

Capitalism in any form (include state-capitalism aka communism) is not scientific but religious.
The MPAA/RIAA aka MAFIAA is indeed an organized crime front and a terrorist group that has done far worse damages than alqaeda.
- Guest
  
  You know if we consider the economy and the wealthfare of the world population this is definitivly true. These corporate parasites parasites are worst than ElQuada.
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Mattxo

Dr. Waterman’s report ultimately concluded that 90.2% of all daily downloads on Hotfile are infringing, opposed to 5.3% that are clearly non-infringing.

Ok so what about the other 4.5%? that is clearly missing. Made-up statistics FAIL.
Anonymous

That actually does make a lot of sense dude.
Anon-Works.tk
Tsunku

i looked at waterman’s report and found it to be 82% fiction, 10% bullshit, 3% concocted in a boardroom of the mpaa, 5% just random words to fill page length.
Goosmoo

I’m glad they’re not going after youtube. That’s where I get most of my documentaries and some of my movies.
http://www.horriblenight.com GiffTor

Check out Federal Rules of Evidence 702 and 403. They’ll be illuminating as to how the court is required to interpret and weight the original study and the follow up criticism.
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Neb12

you know the difference between privacy and piracy? It’s the V
Pingback: Hotfile Researcher Discredits MPAA-Funded Piracy Study | Emmashare
ChuckUfarley

another example on how one sided all the studies are
done by the MPAA and their Affils.

its about time someone takes the time to do a little booklet maybe called

“The MPAA and their Affiliates: On how to dumbfund people with just unreliable and plain and simple lying Studies”

would propbably make some nice reading to see how stupid some of the stuff they did is
w/c

This is not a surprise. I wasn’t expecting the MPAA to come up with anything true.
Pingback: Piracy Debate | Pearltrees
Anonymous

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