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2011 Oscars: Pirates Have to Wait Longer for Fewer Leaks

The 2011 Oscar nominees were announced earlier this week, inspiring many people to fire up their BitTorrent clients and start downloading. As we’ve done in previous years, we now take a look at the availability of the nominated films online and whether there are any new trends emrging. This year, fewer high quality copies leaked online and pirates had to wait longer than in previous years for those that did.

oscar torrentsWaxy’s Andy Baio has been collecting detailed piracy stats for every Oscar-nominated movie since 2003, and this data is revealing some interesting trends.

The statistics for all 2011 nominees, excluding the documentary and foreign films categories, show that 20 of the 29 films are now available on BitTorrent in DVD quality. More than half of the films have leaked as a screener and 7 of those are estimated to be leaked by Academy members.

Despite the widespread availability of these high-profile movie titles, the overall trend is that fewer high quality copies leak every year. In common with last year, the number of screener copies that surfaced online has been reduced – 38% of the all the nominated films, down from the record low of 41% this time last year.

If retail DVDs are thrown into the mix we find that 66% of the films are now available in high quality format, down from 79% around the same time last year. Interesting statistics, which are obviously welcomed by the MPAA and other Hollywood players.

Another statistic that stands out is the average time between the theatrical release in the US and the leak of the film online. This average wait time (including CAM releases) has gone up to 37 days this year, the longest wait since Baio started tracking these statistics in 2003.

#Days to first leak since 2003

days

It has to be noted though, that the 37 days average is a skewed picture and most leaks come out much quicker. The median leak time is only 17 days, but the average waiting time is pushed up by three movie titles for which the pirating audience had to wait for more than 100 days.

Finally, we want to draw attention to some statistics which showing that availability and box office success don’t always lead to high piracy rates.

Toy Story 3, the most successful film at the box office last year, was available in a high quality copy on BitTorrent just a day after its premiere. All the ingredients for an unprecedented number of illegal downloads were there, but somehow it didn’t even make it into the list of 2010′s most downloaded movies.

Also, this year, Rabbit Hole was only one film for which the first screener leak came out before the theatrical release last December. Despite this unfortunate timing, the film has been downloaded by only a few thousand people in the past several weeks, trailing dozens of other films in terms of popularity.

Despite the lack of a high correlation between early availability, box office revenues and piracy, the movie industry continues to worry about piracy and the losses it may generate. Given that overall movie piracy is still on the rise, we expect that both measures against torrent sites and screener leaks will be intensified throughout 2011.

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  • Love1080P

    Are there any good movies nominated which are worth downloading ?

    • Shith0le

      yeah… The Social Network (2010)

      • Glib

        OMG really ?

      • Love1080P

        The Blu-ray was already released. No need for a leak.

        • http://www.facebook.com/christianblough Christian Shaffer

          unless of course you dont want to spend $20

      • Jay

        Just saw it yesterday. It was just OK. Yeah, I get it: the whole point of the movie was that it’s ironic that the creator of one of the most successful social networks doesn’t have any friends. So what?

        The only reason this movie was at all interesting is because it’s based on actual people – if this were a purely fictional movie it would have gone straight to rental.

        • Step

          It is purely fictional…

        • Jay

          It’s based on true characters and true events. I feel bad that I’m the one
          to have to tell you that.

        • Drake3

          Heh, being based on real people and real events doesn’t mean that it isn’t mostly fiction. While the main bullet points are true, most everything else was Hollywood embellishment. Try not to be fooled. (Although if you realize it is a bit of a tall tale, but you enjoyed the tale anyways, I can accept that.) Below is taken from wikipedia:

          Zuckerberg stated to Oprah Winfrey that the drama and partying of the film is mostly fiction, explaining “this is my life, so I know it’s not so dramatic,” and that he spent most of the past six years focusing, working hard, and coding Facebook. Speaking to an audience at Stanford University, Zuckerberg stated that the film portrayed his motivations for creating Facebook inaccurately; instead of an effort to “get girls”, he says he created the site because he enjoys “building things”. However, he added that the film accurately depicted his real-life wardrobe, saying, “It’s interesting the stuff that they focused on getting right – like every single shirt and fleece they had in that movie is actually a shirt or fleece that I own.”

          Screenwriter Sorkin has stated that, “I don’t want my fidelity to be to the truth; I want it to be to storytelling.”

        • Jay

          While I thank you for your thoughtful reply, my argument still stands. It is neither “purely fictional”, as Step proclaimed, nor is it entirely the truth, which is why I said it’s “based on” the truth. And it is.

          I understand that words have meanings, which is why I choose them carefully. I wish others would do the same.

        • Jay

          While I thank you for your thoughtful reply, my argument still stands. It is neither “purely fictional”, as Step proclaimed, nor is it entirely the truth, which is why I said it’s “based on” the truth. And it is.

          I understand that words have meanings, which is why I choose them carefully. I wish others would do the same.

        • Sean4123

          I feel bad that I have to point out how amazing the acting, cinematography, and soundtrack were to you, but there you go. Just because all you got out of it was that the guy that invented Facebook has no friends, doesn’t mean thats the only thing everyone else saw in it. Its a phenomenal film.

        • Tom

          Plus the phenomenal writing and directing…

        • Jay

          Yeah, the acting, cinematography and soundtrack were very good, and yet I
          didn’t give a shit about any of the characters. They were all dickheads.
          When it comes down to it, movies are really just about people, and a movie
          where everyone is unlikeable and insufferable just doesn’t really work on
          any emotional level. It’s not that I didn’t get anything out of the movie,
          it’s just that the movie was cold, soulless, and irrelevant.

        • Sean4123

          You have got to be kidding me. Jesus Christ some people are stupid.

      • 5318008

        He said *good* movies.

    • http://www.facebook.com/christianblough Christian Shaffer

      Wow. Ok, so there’s Black Swan, The King’s Speech, True Grit, Social Network, Inception, The Fighter, 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right. All of them pretty much. Have you not seen any movies this year?

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Sean-Mcintier/1146574107 Sean Mcintier

        Is True Grit last year? I was thinking it was this year because I heard someone say they saw it earlier in the month..

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7JB7DGE65KDWSWJWI4E3356SNQ Charles

    You know I think if the MPAA people think about it, they would start making movies that suck. Then piracy would come to a slow crawl.

    Oh! Wait a minute. They already do, don’t they. They must be on to us.

    Sorry, just my attempt at humor.

    Charles

    • Genwar

      Oh you were joking. I thought you were on to something…

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  • Poop12

    Its the MPAA/RIAA actually leaking the videos, just so they have something to blame on their failing business practices

    • Got

      not only blame on, also profiting from. their failing over the last years is being compensated by the profit they get from taking filesharers to court.

  • Momo

    Truth of the matter is, movie releases are getting worse every year. Add to that the fact that the Oscars are getting more and more irrelevant every time.

    Seriously, the Oscars a ceremony created by Hollywood to honor their own main-stream film-makers (ooh, look they have a “best foreign movie” award!). Fuck their self-promotion, DO NOT WANT.

    • Martianka

      Well said Momo!

      The American profit making machine makes me sick:
      Here is how it is applied to film making:

      F*k art, f*k quality, f*k real or genuine feelings.
      All that matters is making money.

      They’ve made some good sci-fi films, sure.. and there are some gems among the cr*p… But I have started boycotting the American junk and am better off for it!
      I’d encourage others to try the same approach.

      Explore the alternatives from around the world.
      Thanks to Bittorrent you can! Sharing is Caring!

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  • Metal_death

    when is harry potter 7 and tron will get leaked
    almost every top notch is out in 720p scr now
    where is harry

    • Noni

      idiot

  • Jerksrus

    MPAA / RIAA should have their own search engine… call it dumbass central

  • Anonymous

    The Oscars: A club of sycophants giving each other prizes.

    Why is there no public input into “the best movie awards”?

    • guest

      It’s called the People’s Choice Awards, dude.

  • DarknessFallz

    Honistly were do you get YOUR stats from? I’ve personally gotten High quality Screener rips on a large portion of the movies. Not many are being publicly released due to recent issues. The lack of them being publicly announced is simply do to the fact that the less flags you wave the better chance to have it wide spread before serious crackdowns begin.

    • Metal

      so from where did u got them from
      and can you name the movies if not the place

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  • Anonymous

    The.Fighter.2010.WEBSCR.720p.AC3.XViD-T0XiC-iNK <— just popped up

  • Lol

    Oh no I have to wait longer to watch a movie for free… give a shit.

    • Anonymous

      This. I will gladly wait for a 1080p rip to watch it from my home theater. I always just update my wait-list and dl when the movies i want to see get uploaded.
      Also, another “nominee movie” leak: Rabbit.Hole.2010.WEBSCR.720p.AC3.XViD-T0XiC-iNK

  • Foff

    I am really sick of hollywood blaming piracy for lost sales. I don’t see theaters going out of business in mass. I haven’t seen any retail stores stop selling movies for lack of sales. Last year was really a crappy year for movies because the movies were crappy and had nothing at all to do with piracy. Piracy is done by mostly those that either had already been a customer; I have seen movies in the theater and then downloaded them for another look or never would be customers. I mostly do not believe in buying Dvd’s and unless i buy a movie for the kids from the $5 bin I never and probably never will buy movies. I might download a first run movie for $2

    The bad part of CGI and 3d is now that movie makers can fill the screen with eye candy and forget about a good story or acting. The last three star wars movies was a great example of that as well as all the 3d flops that came out after avatar and even Avatar was a stupid manipulative cliche of a story although the effects and tech presentation was interesting.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_TTQRXBVIYVQAEXPBNGBXV5VAOQ Sean

      I saw Toy Story 3 in 3D. It was actually a really good movie. The 3D was cool but it wasn’t the focus of the movie. They shouldn’t center movies around 3D, just have it kinda as an extra feature…

      • 3D sucks

        3D makes me giddy. it sucks!

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  • Dsfsd

    tropa de elite 2 when?

    • Noni

      idiot

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7JB7DGE65KDWSWJWI4E3356SNQ Charles

    If piracy is such a bad thing then…

    Actually now that I think about it, if they (mpaa/riaa) really want to stop piracy, they would have already done it. I mean how do they explain how really good quality dvdrips/brrips could be leaked before the dvd/blu-ray was even sold to the public. We CANNOT share what we don’t have access to! They have the access and the means to make the dvdrips, since they have the media themselves.

    In regards to my first comment (way up at the top), if they really want to curtail piracy, they could make movies like Toy Story 1-3. Movies so good people don’t bother downloading it. Movies so good, you instantly want to rent/buy it. Isn’t that why people download movies in the 1st place? Speaking for myself, I want to see if the movie is any good at all. I may have seen the trailer, and I was riding the fence trying to decide if it was going to be a waste of money or not. THAT is when I go to torrents.

    Truth of the matter, I am so dirt poor that movie theaters are too rich for me to go. Blockbuster/Redbox has to really EARN their dollar-a-night rentals from me. So I use torrents, where I watch it on my small 19 inch CRT monitor. Then, (like the movie “RED”) if it’s THAT GOOD, I’ll pay to rent it, and watch the very same movie (a 2nd time) on my much bigger 32 inch LCD.

    MPAA/RIAA: Are you listening? I’m throwing you gold nuggets the size of boulders here!

    One more thing: Blockbuster Express & Redbox needs to have kiosk machines for the much older super awesome classic movies of the past. Movies like “Saving Private Ryan”, “Braveheart”, “Driving Miss Daisy”, and such would do very well renting in kiosk machines, too. I think this would cut down on piracy, too.

    • Freja

      Got some news for you:
      They don’t care what YOU think/want!
      They care about making money!

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7JB7DGE65KDWSWJWI4E3356SNQ Charles

        Well, they will not get as much money from me, if they don’t 1st seek to please my wants & desires. Sounds like common sense to me. You really think they would make movies the general public has no earthly desire for? Isn’t that what focus groups are for (to make sure the public will like it)? Otherwise why blow a bunch of money on movie that is just going to tank? Seems rather stupid.

        Point is this: If they want my money so bad, they better care about what, WE, the consumers think/want, or they ARE NOT GETTING ONE MORE SINGLE FREAKING DIME!!!

        • Clarence

          Unless you happen to be one of the person they sue.

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7JB7DGE65KDWSWJWI4E3356SNQ Charles

          You can’t get blood from a turnip, and you can’t get money out of somebody who is has $0 income.

  • Doctor

    will harry or Tron will get a leak or not

    • Noni

      idiot

  • ekee

    i think piracy is the best thing that ever happened
    this industry is going down and we don’t want to waste our 13$ to go watch the movie
    why don’t they make is easier?
    the mpaa riaa don’t understand that it’s not only about money, its about CONVENIENCE
    people don’t care what’s right or wrong
    there IS no right or wrong
    the govt. is trying to regulate the internet and make the companies charge us by the gigabyte
    i say screw the govt.
    We will never give up our freedom of speech
    A government that tries to control every aspect of it’s people’s lives is not only in serious internal collapse but also totally corrupt
    Long live Piracy!

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  • Elfin

    Can’t wait to see the Oscars because they’re all about art and not B movies

  • they do

    Oscars suck anyway

  • This

    also my bet is if you look at the sci fi releses and compare you will see as the sci fi goes down so does this graph go up.

    WHEN HOLLYWOOD LOSES ALL ITS CREATIVE PEOPLE YOU KNOW ITS JUST GONNA DIE EVENTUALLY.

    JUST A BUNCH A LAWYERS NOW.

  • Bystander

    A more interesting correlation is to check how viewership of films increase after they have been nominated for an Oscar. Because it’s easier to be told what you like than to make the decision for yourself…

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  • Anon

    I stopped caring about movies from Hollywood. Last movie I watched in a theater was 2 years ago. IMO most of the movies are crap and aren’t worth the time wasted watching them or the bandwidth and disk space.

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